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Orioles at Guardians Prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, betting trends and stats for July 21

It’s Monday, July 21 and the Orioles (44-54) are in Cleveland to take on the Guardians (48-50). Tomoyuki Sugano is slated to take the mound for Baltimore against Tanner Bibee for Cleveland.

Cleveland and Baltimore are set for a four-game series that could push the Guardians above .500 for the first time since June 26. Baltimore won the three-game series earlier in the season, 2-1, outscoring Cleveland 18-9 in Baltimore.

The Guardians are coming off two out of three wins in home series versus the Athletics, while the Orioles dropped two of three at the Rays, but won the finale to avoid the sweep, 5-3.

Cleveland is 8-2 in the last 10 games and has the easiest strength of schedule for the second-half of the season, so this is a good time to keep the momentum flowing.

Let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two. We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Orioles at Guardians

Date: Monday, July 21, 2025
Time: 6:40PM EST
Site: Progressive Field
City: Cleveland, OH
Network/Streaming: MASN2, CLEG

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Odds for the Orioles at the Guardians

The latest odds as of Monday:

Moneyline: Orioles (+117), Guardians (-138)
Spread: Guardians -1.5
Total: 8.0 runs

Probable starting pitchers for Orioles at Guardians

Pitching matchup for July 21, 2025: Tomoyuki Sugano vs. Tanner Bibee
- Orioles: Tomoyuki Sugano, (7-5, 4.44 ERA)
  Last outing: 6.0 Innings Pitched, 3 Earned Runs Allowed, 4 Hits Allowed, 3 Walks, and 2 Strikeouts
- Guardians: Tanner Bibee, (5-9, 4.29 ERA)
  Last outing: 5.2 Innings Pitched, 2 Earned Runs Allowed, 6 Hits Allowed, 2 Walks, and 5 Strikeouts

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Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Orioles and the Guardians

Rotoworld Best Bet

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes the Guardians to reach 80 wins:

“In the first 24 games of the 67 one second-half of the schedule are the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies, Twins, Mets, White Sox, and Marlins -- beautiful! Cleveland took the series against the A’s, 2-1 — so far so good.

The Guardians have the easiest strength of schedule remaining in the MLB and need a 34-33 record over the second half to secure 80-plus wins, which I believe is more than possible.”

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Monday’s game between the Orioles and the Guardians:

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Cleveland Guardians on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Baltimore Orioles at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 8.0.

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC.

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Orioles at Guardians

Baltimore is 11-7 when Sugano pitches this season
Cleveland is 9-10 when Bibee pitches this season
The Guardians have won 6 of their last 7 matchups against American League teams
The Guardians’ last 4 home games versus the Orioles have gone over the Total
The Orioles have covered in 4 of their last 5 road games but they are profiting 1.51 units

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

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