Wales path to World Cup after Belgium defeat

Wales had their World Cup destiny in their own hands.

After being beaten by Belgium, they are going to have to instead try to grasp a place in next summer's finals via the play-offs.

Craig Bellamy's side went into Monday's game with Kevin De Buryne and co knowing victory would set them up for two final fixtures where two wins would book an automatic place in Canada, Mexico and USA.

But the 4-2 loss means they face a final day shoot-out with North Macedonia just to finish second.

And all of a sudden, Wales fans have to grab the significance of goal difference and seedings.

A win over Belgium could have seen Wales enter next month's final fixtures top of Group J.

Instead – after a second defeat of the campaign - Wales sit third on 10 points, four points behind Belgium with two games to play.

North Macedonia also had hopes of an unlikely bid for top spot having held Belgium in Ghent on Friday.

But they were frustrated at home in a 1-1 draw with Kazakhstan on Monday to leave them second on 13 points having played a game more. Their final game is in Cardiff against Wales on 18 November.

It means Belgium – who take on fourth-placed Kazakhstan in Astana on 15 November and then group minnows Liechtenstein at home in Liege on 18 November – need just one win to guarantee finishing top. Even if they slipped up in Kazakhstan, it is almost inconceivable they would not beat a Liechtenstein side who have lost their last 20 qualifying fixtures.

And in the unlikely event that Belgium somehow drew both fixtures, Wales would still have to win both of their games and do so with a goal difference swing of 12.

Fanciful stuff.

So if Belgium have all but secured the automatic qualification, the door is open for Wales to finish second and progress to the play-offs for group runners up.

Wales have that chance in their own hands given they next face Liechtenstein in Vaduz. A win in that penultimate game would see Bellamy's side draw level on points with North Macedonia before those two nations face each other in the final group fixture.

A Wales win in that closing game would then be enough for second spot.

A Wales win over Liechtenstein would see them draw level on points with North Macedonia.

But with final positions separated by goal difference, it means a draw in the final game would only be enough if Wales overhaul North Macedonia's current six goal advantage.

So in other words, Wales would need to thrash Liechtenstein by six goals or more for a draw in the final game to be enough.

A six goal win against Liechtenstein would see the sides equal on goal difference, but Wales would have the advantage on goals scored – which is the next tie breaker.

Yes, Wales are all but assured of a place in the play-offs, regardless of where they finish in the group.

That's because of their success in the Nations League last year.

Four places in March's play-offs are kept aside for teams who won their Nations League group – but only used if they don't finish in the top two of their current qualifying group.

With all Nations League group winners above them – Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, England and Norway – either certain of or about to guarantee finishing first or second in their qualifying group, Wales can still claim that safety net play-off place if they fail to topple North Macedonia.

But there is a downside to that route as it will mean Wales will be among the lowest seeded sides in the play-offs – and face a far tougher route to the World Cup.

The play-offs that will take place next March will see 16 teams fight it out for four places at next summer's finals.

Just like when Wales qualified for the 2022 World Cup, there are four paths with teams needing to win a one-legged semi-final and then a one-legged final to qualify.

The draw is seeded with the teams in pots one and two guaranteed a home semi-final against teams from pot three and four. The winners then meet in a final, with the luck of the draw deciding if it's home or away.

The seeds are based on Fifa rankings – apart from teams who reach the play-offs via the Nations League. They will be in pot four – meaning an away semi-final against a top seed.

Finish second, and Wales's current world ranking would see them placed in pot one – and a home semi-final against a bottom seed.

In other words – and based on current standings – finishing second could mean a Cardiff play-off semi-final against Moldova.

Failing to get past North Macedonia and finish third could see them having to go and win in Italy.

The road to the World Cup is never easy.

But some routes are simpler than others – with Wales needing to grab their final opportunity to find theirs