The Jaguars scored first in Sunday’s game against the Texans. They went up 3-0, then 10-0, then 17-0, and held a 19-point lead entering the fourth quarter.
That’s when we got hit with a case of Same Old Jags.
Subbing in for C.J. Stroud, who was inactive with a concussion, Davis Mills led three straight touchdown trips, including a 14-play, 93-yard drive to take the lead and complete the comeback. On that final possession, a defensive pass interference gave Houston a chunk gain and the backup quarterback finished the job himself by rushing for the score. It’s pretty much exactly what we saw in Jacksonville’s Week 2 loss.
More worrisome, the Jaguars lost in the same way we’ve seen for years and years: by beating themselves. Cam Little almost had a field goal opportunity at the end of the game… but a 12-yard catch that would’ve put the ball at Houston’s 33-yard line was negated by an ‘illegal use of hands’ penalty. The offense had plenty of scoring chances throughout the day… but crossed the pylon on just two of four redzone trips and went three-and-out on two fourth quarter possessions. The defense was playing with a sizable lead all day… but they couldn’t get a late stop or get home with a four-man pass rush. Mills was hit on just 9% of his dropbacks (4 of 45); Lawrence was hit on 26% (6 of 23).
The game wasn’t even as bad as previous embarrassments — it was worse. Jacksonville’s 19-point blown lead in today’s debacle was the biggest in franchise history.
Here’s everything you need to know from Jacksonville’s 36-29 loss at NRG Stadium.
Catch up on all the big plays and best moments from tonight’s game in our live blog!
- According to rbsdm.com, the biggest play of the game by Expected Points Added was Houston’s defensive touchdown as the clock hit zero (-7.1 EPA).
- The biggest play of the game by win probability was Mills’ 14-yard touchdown run to take the lead in the fourth quarter (36% swing).
- 26: Points scored by Houston in the fourth quarter
- 136: Receiving yards by Nico Collins
- 67% and 36%: Third down conversion rates by Houston and Jacksonville, respectively
View the full (traditional) box score here
- 96%: Jacksonville’s win probability entering the fourth quarter
- -14.4%: Trevor Lawrence’s completion percentage over expected
- 100%: Jacksonville’s success rate when targeting Jakobi Meyers
View the full (advanced) box score here
Parker Washington
Washington caught a dime from Trevor Lawrence in the corner of the endzone for the first touchdown of the day. According to Next Gen Stats, the pass only had a 28.3% chance of being completed.
The third-year receiver hit paydirt again on a shifty 73-yard punt return to give Jacksonville a 17-0 lead.
Jarrian Jones
Despite an encouraging rookie season, Jones was replaced in the starting lineup when the Jaguars signed Jourdan Lewis during the offseason to defend the slot.
With Lewis inactive today (neck), Jones stepped up and played his tail off. He stepped in front of former Jaguar Christian Kirk for an interception on the first possession of the game and later broke up a third down pass to force a punt. Jones added 2 TFLs and another 2 solo tackles to his stat sheet as well.
Cam Little
It’s a shame that we never saw Little get a chance to win the game. He’s rediscovered his confidence. The second-year kicker has made all 3 of his field goal attempts in consecutive games since Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye.
- RB Bhayshul Tuten was injured during a second quarter kickoff return but returned in time for the next one.
- RG Patrick Mekari exited the game in the fourth quarter but returned after two plays.
When will the self-inflicted mistakes get cleaned up? It’s a question that’s already been asked but yet to be answered. The Jaguars entered the game with the most penalties in the league (74), and they were penalized 9 times for 90 yards today. Perhaps the coaching staff’s youth/relative lack of experience is showing.
How will general manager James Gladstone address the pass rush in the offseason? Like the topic above, this is a team weakness that just isn’t going away. The Jaguars entered the game with a league-low 3.3% sack rate, and they mustered just 2 sacks on 45 dropbacks today (4.4%). Maybe Josh Hines-Allen isn’t an elite pass rusher, but he could certainly use some assistance!
How close are we to having a difficult conversation about Trevor Lawrence? This was another game in which it was hard to put too much weight on the quarterback’s errors, considering how many were made around him. Lawrence was somewhat set up for failure with a depleted pass-catching unit going against the top-ranked Texans defense. I don’t think he’s dragging the team down. That said, he isn’t exactly lifting them up. At what point will the organization lose interest in what he* could* be with a good roster? For the first time ever, I think Lawrence playing in a non-Jaguars uniform is an actual possibility. The case for him to be Jacksonville’s starter in 2026 and beyond has far too many excuses baked into it. He has the next eight games to convince Gladstone, Coen, and Tony Boselli that he’s their guy.
What are your thoughts on today’s game, Jaguars fans?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
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