IndusInd Bank, Hero MotoCorp may exit Nifty to make way for IndiGo, Max Healthcare: Nuvama

Synopsis

IndusInd Bank and Hero MotoCorp may be dropped from the Nifty50 in the September review, with Max Healthcare and IndiGo likely replacements, according to Nuvama. Max could see $400 million in passive inflows if included. BSE is unlikely to enter the Nifty50 or even the Nifty Next 50 unless its stock surges over 40% and sustains the rally through July.

Crisis-ridden IndusInd Bank and two-wheeler major Hero MotoCorp may be excluded from the Nifty50 in the upcoming reshuffle due in September, according to calculations by Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research.

The firm identified IndiGo and Max Healthcare as the top two inclusion candidates. "IndiGo has already seen substantial positive price action, reflecting market expectations. On the other hand, Max Healthcare appears under-owned on this theme and could attract more buying interest. We estimate that Max Health’s inclusion would imply passive buying of over $400 million (approximately 12 days of average daily volume)," the brokerage said.

Conversely, Hero MotoCorp and IndusInd Bank are likely to be excluded from the Nifty50, potentially facing passive outflows of $244 million and $255 million, respectively. The cut-off period for eligibility ends in July, with the official announcement expected in late August and adjustments implemented on September 29.

“While much of the negative sentiment appears to be priced in, we believe any further downside will be more pronounced around the adjustment period. Until then, we don’t expect significant pressure purely from expected passive flows,” Nuvama said.

The only scenario in which Max Healthcare may miss inclusion is if Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) outperforms Max Health by approximately 12% immediately and sustains that outperformance through the end of July. Nuvama added that this is a low-probability event.

Will BSE make it to Nifty?

While earlier media reports suggested that stock exchange BSE could be included in the Nifty50 in the September rejig, Nuvama has ruled out any possibility of that happening, at least in the September 2025 review.

“We’ve gone through the methodology document in detail, and our understanding suggests that BSE fails to meet several key eligibility criteria. In fact, we believe there’s almost no chance of BSE even making it to the Nifty Next 50 in the September 2025 review,” it said.

However, an inclusion could become possible if the index construction methodology changes or if BSE shares rise sharply — by over 40% — and sustain that rally through the end of July.

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